Donald Trump came into office swearing off foreign wars. He called himself a peacemaker, a dealmaker who could end conflicts others had failed to contain.
But six months into his second term, war drums are beating louder than ever.
And this time, the United States may be on the verge of launching airstrikes on Iran.
Trump now has the opportunity to reverse what he called the Biden administration’s foreign policy failures, referring to the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal.
With Israel and Iran exchanging fire, and US military assets flooding into the region, the US President is now caught between his instincts, his base, and a world that refuses to stay quiet.
His legacy now hinges not on peace, but on how he handles the prospect of war.
Is the US about to strike Iran?
Israel launched a major military campaign called “Operation Rising Lion” on June 12, hitting Iran’s nuclear and military sites with precision airstrikes.
In response, Iran fired over 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israeli cities, injuring more than 800 people.
A direct hit on Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba set the tone that this isn’t just a regional standoff anymore.
It’s becoming a war between states.
Trump has already approved US strike plans behind closed doors. According to multiple reports, the Pentagon is ready.
Three US Navy destroyers are stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Two aircraft carrier strike groups are either in place or en route to the Arabian Sea.
Air refuelling tankers and fighter jets have been repositioned to European bases.
But Trump is hesitating. Publicly, he remains vague. “I may do it. I may not,” he told reporters, repeating a now-familiar refrain.
The most likely US target, military experts say, is the Fordow uranium enrichment facility. It’s buried under a mountain.
Only US bunker-buster bombs can destroy it.
What does Trump actually want?
The White House insists the goal is simple: prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” of its nuclear program.
Total dismantlement, unlimited inspections, and permanent verification.
Tehran has refused. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that US intervention will have “irreparable consequences.”
Still, Iran says it does not seek a bomb and remains open to diplomacy, just not at gunpoint.
Trump’s own messaging has been inconsistent. Days before Israel struck Tehran, he warned Netanyahu that military escalation could undermine US–Iran talks.
After the strikes, he praised them as “excellent.” His administration, meanwhile, claims the US isn’t involved, despite boasting of “complete control of the skies over Iran.”
This pattern of public ambiguity and private escalation has created widespread confusion.
Even senior US lawmakers say they’ve received no clear briefing. Intelligence committees remain in the dark.
There’s no official Congressional authorization for war.
Trump calls it a strategy. Critics call it chaos.
Americans are just as confused
Polling by the Washington Post has shown that just 25% of Americans support a US strike on Iran.
Forty-five percent oppose it. The rest are unsure.
Among Republicans, support rises to 47%, but a full 24% oppose intervention. Independents lean heavily against strikes.
The MAGA base, once reliably behind Trump, is cracking.
Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Marjorie Taylor Greene have all come out forcefully against any US military action.
“We can’t have another Iraq,” Bannon warned. “This is not America First.”
Carlson went viral, attacking Sen. Ted Cruz for pushing regime change in Tehran.
Trump remains defiant:
“My supporters love me more than ever. They know I’m not looking for a fight, but I won’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
Still, the backlash is real. Many of Trump’s voters believed him when he said he’d end foreign wars. Now he’s one strike away from starting one.
The broader map: three flashpoints, no wins
Iran isn’t the only hotspot Trump is juggling. In Ukraine, Russia just launched its deadliest missile attack on Kyiv in months.
Peace talks brokered in May collapsed. Despite promising to resolve the war quickly, Trump has not imposed new sanctions or delivered fresh military aid.
A State Department insider called his Russia policy a “spectacular failure.”
In Gaza, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Dozens have been killed near aid routes.
A peace deal co-developed by the Biden and Trump administrations fell apart in March.
Since then, there’s been no new initiative. Trump’s critics say he has no working plan. The administration blames the chaos on Biden.
For someone who once claimed he could end the Russia–Ukraine war in 24 hours, Trump now seems stuck.
He has shown little willingness to pressure Putin, and his team recently disbanded a task force focused on isolating Moscow.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to claim credit for stopping border skirmishes between India and Pakistan. But outside of that, no new peace has emerged.
What are the most likely scenarios?
Trump’s national security team has mapped out military options. The question is no longer whether the US can strike Iran. It’s whether Trump wants to.
If Iran launches another high-casualty attack, especially one targeting Americans, a US response becomes almost inevitable.
Fordow is the most likely target. But hitting it risks regional war. Iran has already threatened US bases in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf.
Proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis may enter the fight. The Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil artery, could be disrupted overnight.
If Iran blinks, Trump could claim victory without firing a shot.
This would play well politically, satisfying his base and reinforcing his image as a negotiator.
Another scenario is diplomatic delay. The US and EU powers are set to meet with Iran’s foreign minister in Geneva.
That meeting could produce a cooling period, or it could fail entirely. If it fails, the pressure to act will return fast.
The most unstable outcome is Trump’s favorite: keeping everyone guessing.
Delaying endlessly. Letting tension fester. Making no irreversible decision.
But this carries its own risk. The longer the standoff lasts, the higher the chance that one missile, one drone, or one mistake sparks a war no one truly wants.
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