On May 7, 2025, 133 Catholic cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pope.
It’s a vote that could influence not just the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, but global politics as well.
The late Pope Francis was known for his reforms and progressive stance.
What makes this moment particularly important is not just who gets elected, but what they represent.
Will the next pope continue his path or turn back towards tradition?
This conclave is more about tradition. It’s about choosing a moral voice that will speak to the 21st century.
How is the pope chosen?
The papal conclave is one of the oldest surviving electoral processes in the world.
The first official rules date back to 1059, when Pope Nicholas II gave the right to elect the pope exclusively to the cardinals.
Before that, it was a messy blend of Roman clergy, nobility, and political interference.
But politics always played a role. And today, media narratives, lobbying groups, and alliances inside the church hold enough power to shape the results.
Today, the cardinals who choose the pope come from around the world. All must be younger than 80 years old.
Most were appointed by Pope Francis himself, making this conclave less predictable than in the past.
They represent regions from Europe to Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Inside the Sistine Chapel, they vote in secret.
Four ballots are cast each day, and two-thirds of the votes are needed for someone to win.
After each round, ballots are burned.
Black smoke signals no winner yet.
White smoke means a new pope has been elected.
Who are the top contenders?
With 80% of voting cardinals appointed by Francis, this conclave is more global and ideologically mixed than any before.
That’s made predicting the outcome difficult, but a few names stand out.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is the Vatican’s Secretary of State and a frontrunner from Italy.
He’s known for his diplomatic skill and calm leadership style.
However, he has faced criticism for allegedly withholding abuse-related information and for his conservative views on same-sex marriage.
Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, is often called the “Asian Francis.”
He’s a moderate voice who has pushed the Church to show more compassion toward migrants and marginalized groups.
He remains popular in Asia, where Catholicism is growing rapidly, though some question whether he has the political backbone to lead the Vatican bureaucracy.
Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, from Ghana, is widely respected for his international standing and moderate approach.
He has publicly opposed laws criminalizing homosexuality in Africa, and he brings both Vatican experience and Global South representation.
However, he has denied interest in the role.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, from Bologna, is a peace negotiator and a trusted Francis ally.
He led diplomatic missions in Ukraine and Africa and is seen as a continuation of Francis’s style. He’s considered pastoral, pragmatic, and open.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is the most prominent African conservative.
He has rejected the Church’s recent move to bless same-sex unions and is seen as a voice for traditional values, especially in growing African dioceses.
There are also outsiders: Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea (a traditionalist favorite), Cardinal Michael Czerny (a Jesuit like Francis, but unlikely due to back-to-back Jesuit papacies), and American Cardinal Joseph Tobin, known for his inclusive views.
Can the papal vote be influenced?
On May 7, the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel. Their phones are surrendered.
The chapel has already been swept for listening devices, and jamming equipment blocks all signals. Once inside, the doors are sealed.
While outsiders speculate and reporters chase cardinals through Roman cafés, the rules inside are strict.
Talking about the vote can result in excommunication. Even the staff, including kitchen workers, medics, and cleaners, must take an oath of lifelong secrecy.
Still, modern pressure seeps in. Just this week, a digitally generated image of Donald Trump dressed as the pope made the rounds on social media.
Trump dismissed it as a joke. Catholic leaders did not. This moment showed how blurred the line has become between digital propaganda, religious symbolism, and public perception.
Videos of Cardinal Tagle singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” have spread recently. Some saw this as an attempt to undermine his candidacy, but it increased his popularity instead.
Conservative groups have published books promoting traditionalists like Cardinal Robert Sarah, criticizing progressive changes on abortion and same-sex marriage.
Why this election matters far beyond the Church
Nowadays, the pope isn’t just a religious leader. He is one of the last global figures who holds non-political moral authority.
Unlike presidents or CEOs, the pope leads with no military, no GDP, and no term limits.
However, he still shapes views on migration, human rights, war, poverty, and family life.
This soft power matters. Pope Francis shifted the Church’s focus toward social justice, environmental protection, and global outreach.
His voice influenced everything from the UN’s climate goals to how countries frame immigration policy.
The next pope will inherit that global pulpit. A progressive pope may expand it. A conservative one may retrench it.
But either way, the papacy remains unique: it is the only moral seat of global influence not elected by states or markets, although capable of swaying both.
As trust in political institutions continues to fall, this role becomes even more significant.
In parts of Africa and Latin America, the Church functions where governments fail.
In Europe and North America, it remains a cultural anchor.
The decision made in that sealed chapel this week will shape who holds that influence and how they use it.
What does the future hold?
Conclave deliberations are expected to take two to five days, unless there’s a surprise consensus.
Early ballots should eliminate the most extreme candidates and narrow down the most likely ones.
A compromise figure like Zuppi, Turkson, or even Prevost may emerge after the third or fourth day.
Once the new pope is elected, he will be asked if he accepts the position. If he does, he chooses a papal name, changes into a white cassock, steps onto the balcony above St. Peter’s Square, and speaks the words “Habemus papam.”
But behind that moment is a quiet, complex process shaped by centuries of tradition and current-day pressures.
A few days from now, the world will see who gets to be the voice of conscience.
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